December 11, 2007

It’s Not Romney’s Religion Holding Him Back, It’s Huckabee!

Filed under: Politics — Dallin

Correlation is not causation, and even though Romney’s PLUMMET in the polls over the past month certainly correlates with INCREDIBLE amounts of media coverage on his Mormon Faith, it’s not the cause. Check out these two graphs taken from the prediction market Intrade:

About November is when Huckabee enters the Republican nomination scene, and you can see what that did to Romney. Things couldn’t be better for Giuliani, because while they’re sparring for second, he’s enjoying a 40 pt spread over both of them.

That is why I wasn’t surprised in the least to see Romney on the Huckabee attack today, accusing him of being “soft on immigration.” It will be a tight and exciting race between the two, BUT, second place means NOTHING in this race for the Republican nomination. Giuliani has made his disgust for Romney quite public in the last debate, accusing him of harboring illegal’s in his “sanctuary mansion,” which means Romney can kiss hopes of being nodded for vice president goodbye (should Giuliani win - which it looks like he will). The Iowa vote is almost 20 days away, and I expect things to get much more nasty between Romney and Huckabee if either of them wants to win.

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